Where is global trade and investment governance headed? A Tour d’Horizon

Photo: Trump Towers

Since the US created the post-World War Two liberal international order and is still the pre-eminent global power notwithstanding the growing Chinese challenge, it is uniquely placed to determine the trade and investment system’s fortunes. The answer to the question posed in the title, therefore, depends fundamentally on the medium-term trajectory of US politics, and the resultant US position in the world. Accordingly, in this blog I put forward my analysis of where the US political system is headed under President Donald J. Trump, how key countries are responding, and the ensuing implications for the global trade and investment system.

Two Ideas for the G20 to keep the US in the climate-change lifeboat

Image: Céline CharveriatAt the recent G7 energy ministerial in Rome, the Trump administration’s listlessness on climate change prevented attendees from being able to sign off on an endorsement of the Paris climate deal. With the G7 leaders summit in Taormina now only one month away, and the G20 leaders summit in Hamburg only two months after that, it seems Donald Trump is yet to be won over by those in his cabinet who believe it would be a mistake for an American President to attend both summits as the first world leader to cut and run from the Paris Agreement.

TRUMP, CLIMATE ACTION IS UNSTOPPABLE!

Image: Solar Panels

Reaffirming low-carbon future

On Tuesday 28 March, President Trump unravelled his predecessor’s climate policy by signing an executive order that, amongst other things, undoes restrictions on emissions by coal-fired power plants. Obama’s climate measures would have resulted in an estimated 26-28 percent reduction of US emissions by 2025. Many now ask about the global consequences of US withdrawal from climate protection; will this be the end of the world’s quest for a low-carbon and climate resilient future?

Trump und die Zukunft der VN-Weltordnung: Was kann Deutschland tun?

Image: Wellen

Eine autokratische Welle

Ob unlängst bei der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz, beim NATO-Treffen in Brüssel oder in unzähligen Mittagsgesprächen interessierter Beobachter: Die Gefahr, die von US-Präsident Donald Trump für die VN-Weltordnung – sprich Multilateralismus auf liberal-demokratischer Wertebasis – ausgeht, ist das dominierende Thema.

How the G20 can deal with Trump’s Chinese currency complaints in Baden-Baden

Trump still aims to designate China as a currency manipulator

Trump still aims to designate China as a currency manipulator

Last week in an interview with Reuters, U.S. President Trump labelled the Chinese as “grand champions at manipulation of currency”, indicating he has not fully backtracked from his campaign promise to designate China as a ‘currency manipulator’ on ‘day one’ of his Presidency. The position of Washington on this topic has not exactly been crystal clear, however, with the new U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, announcing on the same day as Trump’s comment that the Treasury was in fact still going through the formal process of analysing Chinese currency practices, and that no judgements would be made prior to the completion of that process.